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View Poll Results: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

Voters
23. You may not vote on this poll
  • Labour over 10 more MPs than Conservatives

    3 13.04%
  • Labour 7-10 more MPs than Conservatives

    0 0%
  • Labour 4-6 more MPs than Conservatives

    1 4.35%
  • Labour 1-3 more MPs than Conservatives

    3 13.04%
  • Tie

    1 4.35%
  • Conservatives 1-3 more MPs than Labour

    2 8.70%
  • Conservatives 4-6 more MPs than Labour

    2 8.70%
  • Conservatives 7-10 more MPs than Labour

    0 0%
  • Conservatives over 10 more MPs than Labour

    11 47.83%
  • Other

    0 0%
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Thread: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

  1. #46
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?


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    accurate presentation of inaccurate information?

    I suggest this is the best seats polling poll
    http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

    here are the polls % (which imho means diddlysquat per our stupid voting system)
    but mention the poll and the paper + date
    http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/

    and the Guardian has an interesting complimentary zoom in per seat prediction
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...cy-map?src=nav

    but as a massive reality check for any of us slobbering all over any of the polls

    the polls have generally a + / - 3% accuracy rate, so on a % on marginal’s – it’s a hummm?

    and – sit down now this is important

    last night the Sky survey said 40% are undecided!

    So who the hell knows what the answer is, and how do those polls account for that 40% even if its way lower than 40%? ~ answer = nobody

    Incidentally, pay attention especially the toryboys who voted against AV, if AV were active now then Conservative would be in the lead based on second vote choice of the Tory and UKIP righties. Now I’m a lefty, and I would still have preferred an AV (or other PR) system, as its more reflective than the bullshit we have now, and I believe in democracy even if it conflicts with my personal opinions.

    On the 7th, the bullshit stops when the flag drops. …. Oh eeeer - stand to attention boys, parade not over yet – the bullshit starts on the 7th if hung predictions are correct – it may take up to 3 weeks afterwards for the parties to do their dirty deals and deliver a government that nobody voted for (again).

    … ok chaps – as you were : - )

  2. #47
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by KorkyKat View Post
    That's one argument but not a very good one. Cotton Mills are a good example so too coal. The Cotton Mills closed down because of cheap imports from the Far East. Likewise many coal mines closed because of cheap imports from Germany and Poland. So too cheap steel from the Asian sub continent.

    The Westminster elite determined they would make London the hub of the service industry: Finance, banking and come-day-go-day service providers.

    The Germans have been very successful with their heavy industries. I wonder of that could be due to the fact they have workshop floor representation on their managing boards?
    I'm halfway through The Slow Death of British Industry at the moment. Currently it appears that short-term political gerrymandering, rubbish management and ridiculous union practices seem to be the main culprits for the failure. Good book though.

  3. #48
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by Thermostat9 View Post
    I'm halfway through The Slow Death of British Industry at the moment. Currently it appears that short-term political gerrymandering, rubbish management and ridiculous union practices seem to be the main culprits for the failure. Good book though.
    Looks good. Have just read some of the reviews.

    If I get the time...

    As a kid I could walk most of Manchester and get a job in the morning and change in the afternoon in any of the light to medium, engineering businesses. Most had no Union input at all. We also had one of the best world leading locomotive works - Beyer Peacock. Now almost all are bought from abroad.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beyer,_Peacock_and_Company


  4. #49
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by Thermostat9 View Post
    I'm halfway through The Slow Death of British Industry at the moment. Currently it appears that short-term political gerrymandering, rubbish management and ridiculous union practices seem to be the main culprits for the failure. Good book though.
    That's about it in a nutshell, a deadly cocktail. Would like to read it but can't see a Kindle edition so I can read it on my tablet ...

  5. #50
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by KorkyKat View Post
    The Germans have been very successful with their heavy industries. I wonder of that could be due to the fact they have workshop floor representation on their managing boards?
    The Germans have a quite different mindset though. Their political parties tend to do well talking about 'restraint' in all manner of matters. Quite the opposite to the UK, and (quite the opposite to restraint) possibly embodied in the shape of the SNP.

    I can't imagine British workshop floor representation on company boards giving quite the same result as Germany:


    In case the colours are tricky to make out, Germany is the one that exercised pay restraint.

  6. #51
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kneerly Down View Post
    The Germans have a quite different mindset though. Their political parties tend to do well talking about 'restraint' in all manner of matters. Quite the opposite to the UK, and (quite the opposite to restraint) possibly embodied in the shape of the SNP.
    Good post. Here's a quote which sums up Germany's competitive position better than I can:

    German wage restraint has led to a real depreciation of Germany’s fixed nominal exchange rate vis-à-vis its Eurozone members, helping Germany to win market shares at the expense of Southern Europe. The numbers give support to this argument. In fact, Germany’s real effective devaluation in terms of relative unit labour costs compared with the EU27 during 1994-2009 is about 20%
    http://www.voxeu.org/article/germany...ompetitiveness

  7. #52
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nicola Sturgeon
    “I will not do a deal with David Cameron under any *circumstances.”
    Quote Originally Posted by Ed Miliband
    "Let me be plain. We’re not going to do a deal with the Scottish National party; we’re not going to have a coalition, we’re not going to have a deal."
    The SNP has unconditionally ruled out a coalition deal with the Conservatives, and Labour has unconditionally ruled out a coalition deal with the SNP (who look likely to wipe out Labour in Scotland (and the Lib Dems)).

    Approaching constitutional crisis methinks. Or are these merely pre-election porkies?


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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by irie View Post
    Approaching constitutional crisis methinks. Or are these merely pre-election porkies?
    No, just the groundwork for another election in October.

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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by irie View Post

    Approaching constitutional crisis methinks.
    Re the snp i believe milli did a follow up sentence along the lines of...
    Not if they want another get out referendum in the next five years

    ... I cannot believe Labour will not do a deal with SNP to get the Tories out. It will not just be Scottish voters that would not forgive him if he didn't do that deal.

  10. #55
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by Thermostat9 View Post
    No, just the groundwork for another election in October.
    Agree with you, said exactly that to Mrs irie this morning - don't see any government lasting more than 6 months.

  11. #56
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    I have changed my mind about my vote in the poll which was for the Conservatives to get 4-6 MPs more than Labour.

    Bearing in mind that about 40% of the electorate have yet to make up their minds how to vote on Thursday, my guess now is that the Conservatives will get 20 or more MPs than Labour.

  12. #57
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by irie View Post
    Bearing in mind that about 40% of the electorate have yet to make up their minds how to vote on Thursday, my guess now is that the Conservatives will get 20 or more MPs than Labour.
    Well, the "Triumvirate" - Kneerly Down, Thermostat9 and myself - have been saying that for quite some time.

    But it's encouraging when others see the light too. Don't get me wrong.


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  14. #58
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Quote Originally Posted by BananaMan View Post
    Well, the "Triumvirate" - Kneerly Down, Thermostat9 and myself - have been saying that for quite some time.

    But it's encouraging when others see the light too. Don't get me wrong.

    I've changed my mind because of what Sturgeon and Miliband said in the TV 'debates' in the last two weeks together with the fact that Miliband is now slowly backpeddling on his absolute rejection of any 'deal' with the SNP.

    I think it will become ever clearer to the floating voter the closer we are to election day that voting Labour means getting the SNP.

    And they will vote against it.

    The same conclusion maybe, but not the same analysis.

  15. #59
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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    The only people who have not decided can be classified as morons, imbeciles, teenagers, geriatric goons and prevaricating pillocks. Politics is about conviction. It is also or rather should be about weighing up the pros and cons of each political philosophy and deciding which suits one's world view. This requires thought. People with conviction politics are unlikely to change their values. As for parties changing, that is a different matter altogether - Bevan style Labour or Bliar style Labour. Likewise compassionate Conservatism versus rabid, frothing Vermin i.e., Thatcherism.

    In a half decent society young people would be encouraged to become engaged in politics and to understand the values that underpin each political philosophy.

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    Default Re: How many Labour MPs vs Conservative MPs do you think will be elected on May 7th?

    Safe to say your vote alters not when alteration finds then?

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