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Thread: The Brexit bottom line ...

  1. #11146
    Should Get Out More balbas's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...


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    I was listening to R4 on my commute this morning. Understandably full of Brexit news. It occurred to me that:-

    1) after listening to supposedly intelligent people on the radio this morning, that the view of Catholicism and Protestantism as two separate religions is part of the issue. They need to start understanding that they're two separate denominations of the same religion. Then they might start to see the similarities rather than the differences.

    2) refusal to have a border on the island of Ireland (the Irish chancellor called it *our* island this morning, which I thought was telling), seems to be i) counter to what anyone would expect of a '3rd country' border and ii) designed simply to appease men of violence as the 'threat' is that violence will return.

    3) It seems retarded to not accept that there must be understanding and a deal (probably including soft borders). Because one of the alternatives is no deal - which by its nature means hard borders. It seems to be a risky strategy to try to manipulate the process to either revoke article 50 or have the UK cease to exist by ceding NI to Eire.

    Regardless of the way anyone voted, I struggle to see that anyone could find the negotiation strategy of either side (but especially the EU/Eire) as anything other than potentially disastrous.

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  3. #11147
    Should Get Out More Julian_Boolean's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Yambo View Post
    It seems it really is time for a referendum.

    The people of Northern Ireland should be allowed to choose:

    A: United Kingdom province

    B: European Union province.

    It should be organised, held and enacted within the next 3 weeks. That'll sort things out.
    Option B getting more votes would solve the problem, Option A getting more votes would mean no change.

  4. #11148
    Expecting rain saga_lout's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Julian_Boolean View Post
    Option B getting more votes would solve the problem, Option A getting more votes would mean no change.
    That's OK. We're still in the EU so we can hold the referendum under EU rules*.



    * I.e. vote again and again and again until the fools vote the right way.

  5. #11149
    Should Get Out More Yambo's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Julian_Boolean View Post
    Option B getting more votes would solve the problem, Option A getting more votes would mean no change.
    Option A would send a clear message to the EU and Varadkar that their thinking is wrong.

  6. #11150
    Should Get Out More Julian_Boolean's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Yambo View Post
    Option A would send a clear message to the EU and Varadkar that their thinking is wrong.
    I don't think Varadkar cares what the people of Northern Ireland think, he wants the UK to stay in the EU because Eire's economy is fecked if the UK leaves, where he's going wrong is that he's making no deal more likely which will hurt Eire more than a deal.

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  8. #11151
    Should Get Out More slowsider's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Julian_Boolean View Post
    I don't think Varadkar cares what the people of Northern Ireland think, he wants the UK to stay in the EU because Eire's economy is fecked if the UK leaves, where he's going wrong is that he's making no deal more likely which will hurt Eire more than a deal.
    The people of NI voted for the GFA, bar the DUP. Johnson's latest wheeze gives a veto to the DUP. Now tell me who doesn't care about what the people of NI think.

    Edit: it also voted 56:44 to remain.

    Historically you could argue that leaving the UK hurt the then Free State, but what price sovereignty ?
    Last edited by slowsider; 09-10-19 at 11:44.

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  10. #11152
    Should Get Out More NyseriA's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Yambo View Post
    It seems it really is time for a referendum.

    The people of Northern Ireland should be allowed to choose:

    A: United Kingdom province

    B: European Union province.

    It should be organised, held and enacted within the next 3 weeks. That'll sort things out.
    Might as well do Scotland and Wales as well. One of the components of "Project Fear" was that this could easily result in the dissolution of the United Kingdom, after all!

  11. #11153
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Julian_Boolean View Post
    I don't think Varadkar cares what the people of Northern Ireland think, he wants the UK to stay in the EU because Eire's economy is fecked if the UK leaves, where he's going wrong is that he's making no deal more likely which will hurt Eire more than a deal.
    Is it fecked without a deal? It will certainly hurt the economy, but there is supposedly an aid package available from the EU to shield Ireland from a no deal Brexit and their reliance on the UK market appears to be lessening.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...ines-1.3827587

    The value of Irish goods exports hit a record €13.7 billion in January while the UK accounted for less than 10 per cent of Irish exports for the first time, the latest trade figures show. The record performance comes amid signs of a global slowdown in trade, threats from Brexit and faltering US-China trade relations.
    The figures show seasonally adjusted goods exports grew by 6 per cent to €13.7 billion in January while imports fell by 25 per cent to €6.5 billion. This resulted in a record trade surplus of €7.2 billion, 72 per cent up on the previous month.
    If the Irish economy is going to be fecked through possibly losing 10% of it's export trade, what does that say about the UK with almost 50% of its exports going to the EU?

  12. #11154
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Although c.10% of Irish exports are to the UK, 80% of them travel through the UK.

    One of the problems for the Irish Government is that its economy is highly integrated with the UK. Currently, around 80% of the goods Ireland exports are transported to or through the UK. Ireland also sources 41% of its food imports and 55% of its fuel imports from the UK mainland.
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...ireland-brexit

  13. #11155
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Good brexit news for irie, saga and ant at last.

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/n...ogging-213622/

  14. #11156
    Should Get Out More Pirahna's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Ant's only interested in sausage dogging.

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  16. #11157
    Expecting rain saga_lout's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by DefTrap View Post
    Good brexit news for irie, saga and ant at last.

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/n...ogging-213622/
    I'm in Essex. Can you give me the benefit of your experience and direct me to some dogging sites a bit closer to home*? Thanks.



    * So I can avoid them of course.

  17. #11158
    Should Get Out More irie's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by saga_lout View Post
    I'm in Essex. Can you give me the benefit of your experience and direct me to some dogging sites a bit closer to home*? Thanks.



    * So I can avoid them of course.
    This is where DefTrap goes, near his Cambridge 'gaff' of course.

    https://www.dogging-society.com/gb/p...-dogging.shtml

  18. #11159
    Should Get Out More irie's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Wiki
    The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019, also known as the Benn Act after its parliamentary sponsor Hilary Benn, is an Act of Parliament that requires the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to seek an extension to the Brexit withdrawal date—currently scheduled for 31 October 2019—in certain circumstances.
    Seems to me that there remain two ways the above Act could perhaps be circumnavigated.

    Firstly, to argue that international law trumps/usurps UK law, thereby avoiding the requirement to request an extension.

    Secondly, for the government to resign, thus there would be no government or Prime Minister to request an extension.

    Or perhaps the former, followed by a Supreme Court hearing, and thereafter if the government is ruled against, an appeal to the European Court of Justice, and if the government again ruled against, followed by the latter?

    Perhaps the lawyers will come up with other wheezes and counter wheezes?

    Edit: It would be in Macron/France's interests to veto an extension because this would leave France as the only nuclear power EU member, the only permanent member of the UN Security Council in the EU, and would remove UK blocking of many of France's EU ambitions such as an EU army (French of course ).
    Last edited by irie; 10-10-19 at 06:41.

  19. #11160
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    AFAIK the European courts only trump UK ones in matters of EU law. The Benn act is an entirely domestic law and hence the European courts have no jurisdiction. It's the same reason Boris could not have gone to Europe to appeal the surpeme court ruling on his prorogation.

    On the second point...can the government still resign these days now that we have the fixed term act?

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