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Thread: The Brexit bottom line ...

  1. #4636
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...


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    Quote Originally Posted by Screwdriver View Post
    Divided among 26 other member states. Hey, share and share alike. Greece deserves their fair share too because, err...
    Within the UK, do you object to some areas getting more support than others ?

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Yambo View Post
    I now think the UK should not only stay in the EU, it should adopt the Euro, make our whole economy available to Europe, close up the Westminster Parliament and be a leading force in the United States of Europe (if Germany and France say it can be).

    Bobz of course reckons that there isn't a United States of Europe and there isn't going to be one so you should take that comment as intended and not as read.
    I have never said that there isn't going to be one. What I have said is that we don't have one and that one isn't on the cards, certainly not for the whole of the EU to morph into. I have said repeatedly that bringing about one will require a new treaty, and doing that at the minute would break Europe - it is at far too fragile a stage, what with Italy, Poland, Hungary to name but three continuing members having problems with the EU. And I've repeatedly said that it would be a much easier exit for us if the existing treaty is being scrapped and we're deciding not to come along for the ride on the new one.

    As for your specific suggestions, adopting the Euro would be bonkers - one should never be reliant for day to day expenses on borrowing money that you do not control the supply of. Making our whole economy available to Europe is an interesting thought - I would be interested as to what you mean by that and how it isn't the case already. Unless you mean tax revenues, or our gross domestic product, which are entirely different things to 'our economy'. Indeed, we have full access to the economies of every other EU state in much the same way, but not their tax revenues or gdp.

    As for closing up the Westminster Parliament, it's very very broken, but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. I'd prefer a system, perhaps similar to our early, pre-Georgian system of Parliament whereby Government was separate from Parliament, whereby Government was a stable force, subject not to the whims of the masses, who could not be swung by popularism into the depths of extremism, where if they wanted to achieve something they had to convince both the representatives of the people and a group of elder statesmen who had long term interests at heart and were not dependant on popular support to retain their roles. If they could not convince one or other of those groups, or could not modify the proposal such that it was acceptable, the proposal fails. This is much better, in my view, than a system where government is constantly fighting for the attention of this year's electorate and hang the future, and once a government has been formed, it basically has constitutionally enshrined absolute power for a period of five years.

    Sound familiar? That (i.e. the pre-Georgian Westminster system) is basically the system of government in the EU. Complaining that the Commission is unelected is about the same as saying that we don't directly get to appoint our civil service. True, but so what? The Commission does not have the power or the control. Perhaps that is what we fail to understand as a nation since our system of government has become so corrupt and eroded in terms of checks and balance.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by slowsider View Post
    Within the UK, do you object to some areas getting more support than others ?
    We recognise the UK is governed and financed as a single entity, albeit with appropriate areas devolved to a more local level.
    The EU may want us to see the EU as that single entity, with the UK being allowed to have a certain level of control, but I believe the citizens of the UK have decided against that idea.

    Of course we should help countries that have desperate needs, and we do so more than the vast majority of countries, but that support is primarily for developing nations and specific situations.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by balbas View Post
    Whilst I'm not wild about it, I suspect that long term it may be better than the halfway house currently proposed. Short term however...
    Define 'better'?

    If the halfway house permits us to compete with Europe for hosting industries that supply to Europe then whilst politically it may be a disaster, economically it will permit us to continue to feed our kids without a trip to the foodbank (for those that have avoided that so far). If no deal means we lose that industry, we have to replace it with something for the long term to be worthwhile. Or attract those industries back. Both of those will be one hell of a big sell.

    In all my discussions with leavers, where I have pointed out that business has already said that the costs of Brexit in totality for them will be at the level that they will not want to bear, and so will restructure so as not to bear them, meaning reducing investment in the UK, none of them have ever been able to come up with any answer whatsoever to the question of 'so what will we actually be exporting that we will need these trade deals for?'. There is a base assumption that we will still be doing things without any consideration as to what we will be doing, for whom and why.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobzilla View Post
    none of them have ever been able to come up with any answer whatsoever to the question of 'so what will we actually be exporting that we will need these trade deals for?'. There is a base assumption that we will still be doing things without any consideration as to what we will be doing, for whom and why.
    Your base assumption seems to be we will stop doing everything...we won't.
    We will be exporting much of what we already export...maybe less; maybe more.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kneerly Down View Post
    Your base assumption seems to be we will stop doing everything...we won't.
    We will be exporting much of what we already export...maybe less; maybe more.
    The vast majority of our exports are to the EU, why wouldn't the EU prefer to buy from within the EU?

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kneerly Down View Post
    We recognise the UK is governed and financed as a single entity, albeit with appropriate areas devolved to a more local level.
    The EU may want us to see the EU as that single entity, with the UK being allowed to have a certain level of control, but I believe the citizens of the UK have decided against that idea.

    Of course we should help countries that have desperate needs, and we do so more than the vast majority of countries, but that support is primarily for developing nations and specific situations.
    Is that the royal "we", because I've no idea who this "we" is you're referring to.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwdriver View Post
    The EU could just as easily negotiate a free trade deal with the UK. The only down side is that other members might follow and some other half-in half-out countries might want to renegotiate their own deals. That is a problem entirely of the EU'S making. They could have been just as tough on Norway (all in or nothing) or insist on adopting the euro or get on with creating the superstate they really crave.

    Secondly having been a long time member, a positive contributor and a large part of the success of the EU, they could justifiable treat the UK as a trusted partner of the EU. There are so many options and yet the EU chose to play poker and try to force the UK to remain by playing hardball rather than negotiate any semblance of a sensible exit strategy.



    That is not the dictionary definition no.
    Japan is the third largest economy in the world, with a population of 127m. So twice the size of the UK. The EU did a deal with Japan as much as anything to get access to Japanese markets. The prize for the EU from Brexit is not 39bn, or still being able to sell stuff to us. It is jobs. Manufacturing jobs, finance jobs, management jobs IT, Science, probably even professional services and lawyers.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Julian_Boolean View Post
    The vast majority of our exports are to the EU, why wouldn't the EU prefer to buy from within the EU?
    Vast majority?
    Substantially less than half.

    If you turn the question around, what with the UK currently buying more from the EU than it sells...

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobzilla View Post
    The prize for the EU from Brexit is not 39bn
    The prize for the EU bureaucrats is 39bn CASH to the EU institutions from the UK.
    That, I would suggest, is very important to the pen pushers (or do they have staff who do that for them...who knows...it's secret!) of the EU.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kneerly Down View Post
    Your base assumption seems to be we will stop doing everything...we won't.
    We will be exporting much of what we already export...maybe less; maybe more.
    No, we won't stop doing everything, but for us to do anything, we either have to do it ourselves, including financing that doing, i.e. take our own entrepreneurial risk, or we have to be asked by someone else to do it, i.e. inbound investment.

    We don't do a lot of the entrepreneurial stuff any more, and we are very heavily reliant on inbound investment, so we either need to keep that inbound investment or replace what we lose with entrepreneurial stuff (as well as maintaining the entrepreneurial stuff that is reliant on the inbound investment industries). We're doing badly at the first, and we're also losing on the second - another vote of confidence in the UK by Mr Dyson of late.

    So no, my base assumption is not that we will stop doing everything. My base assumption is that with this sort of seismic shift in our international relations, everything that we currently do is up for grabs, and we will need to justify to foreign owners why it should be us that still does what we do, or whether they should pull out now, or just let what they do here decline until they pull the plug when UK operations are no longer useful.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobzilla View Post
    Japan is the third largest economy in the world, with a population of 127m. So twice the size of the UK..
    Does that make it more important than the UK?
    I thought when we said that c.85% of the global economy is NOT the EU that didn't matter, because we do somewhat under half our trade with the EU.
    Or that the EU market was more important because it is geographically close.

    That seems to matter immensely to a Remainer such as yourself until the argument needs to change.
    Then, the absolute size of the market and geography and actual trade are irrelevant.
    They must be, seeing as Japan is rather further away than the UK and the EU sells under EUR 60bn to Japan vs over EUR 300bn to the UK.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobzilla View Post
    - another vote of confidence in the UK by Mr Dyson of late.
    In any other situation you would be defending the actions of Dyson. I think your opinion on Brexit is overly affecting your analysis of this situation.
    You probably defended Dyson (or it would be consistent with most of your posts) back when he first announced he was moving production to Malaysia.
    I recall doom-mongers saying it was curtains for the 850 employees in the UK.
    Roll on a fair few years and Dyson has 'scaled back' [sic] employees in the UK from 850 to....around 4,000.

    In the case of electric vehicles the biggest market in the world, by far, is Asia, so you can see a business case for assembly to be placed close to the market.
    As you are VERY WELL AWARE though, the real value is the intellectual property rather than the assembly line, and that is staying in the UK.
    Indeed, it is at the new R&D facility where 400 UK employees are doing the high value work of developing the new electric car.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bobzilla View Post
    We don't do a lot of the entrepreneurial stuff any more
    And there was me thinking the UK is the 4th most entrepreneurial country in the world*!
    https://thegedi.org/global-entrepren...lopment-index/



    * Higher than any other EU member btw.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kneerly Down View Post
    And there was me thinking the UK is the 4th most entrepreneurial country in the world*!
    https://thegedi.org/global-entrepren...lopment-index/



    * Higher than any other EU member btw.
    So how many people in the UK are maintained by 'entrepreneurship' as opposed to, say, Ford, GM, Honda, Nissan etc? How much would we have to increase our entrepreneurship if Nissan decided to walk and take their 7,000 jobs plus supply chain support from the UK? You can talk comparative all you like, but I'm talking absolutes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kneerly Down View Post
    In any other situation you would be defending the actions of Dyson. I think your opinion on Brexit is overly affecting your analysis of this situation.
    You probably defended Dyson (or it would be consistent with most of your posts) back when he first announced he was moving production to Malaysia.
    I recall doom-mongers saying it was curtains for the 850 employees in the UK.
    Roll on a fair few years and Dyson has 'scaled back' [sic] employees in the UK from 850 to....around 4,000.
    Whether or not I support Dyson, the point is that groups are taking head office functions out of the UK. That is not good news for the UK.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kneerly Down View Post
    In the case of electric vehicles the biggest market in the world, by far, is Asia, so you can see a business case for assembly to be placed close to the market.
    That's great. Doesn't explain why you'd want to take your holding company, your head office functions and the entire corporate ownership of your business out of the UK.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kneerly Down View Post
    As you are VERY WELL AWARE though, the real value is the intellectual property rather than the assembly line, and that is staying in the UK.
    Indeed, it is at the new R&D facility where 400 UK employees are doing the high value work of developing the new electric car.
    Well, is it? If the West Coast tech tax issues have taught us anything, it is that governments are currently doing all they can to devalue the IP component in favour of other operations. There are several other tax reasons that I can think of as to why one might want to move your corporate group from a developed economy like the UK to a less developed state like Singapore.

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