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Thread: The Brexit bottom line ...

  1. #8281
    Should Get Out More Horse's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...


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    Quote Originally Posted by Screwdriver View Post
    Yes of course, they are diddymen. As opposed to oompa loompas which are of course a different colour.
    OK, that narrows things down (instead of shortening the odds [not that I'm calling anyone who is substantially or significantly below average height 'odd]).

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...


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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    I said look at the [far bigger] financial problems we have back here, which dwarf the one you gave. I wasn't arguing, I didn't say you were wrong. 'Arguement' is another invention.
    We do have huge (and cunningly concealed) financial problems, but the whole of Western civilization is built on an unstable inflate-your-debt-until-it-vanishes model. No government dare do anything else except try to keep the plates spinning, and hope the eventual collapse lands on someone else in the future. One day it will collapse, but hopefully it will last another 25/50/100 years. Chose your own preferred timescale, 25 will see me out.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/14/e...ntl/index.html

    Theresa May will put her Brexit deal to a vote—for the fourth time.

    No. 10 spokesman: "We will therefore be bringing forward the Withdrawal Agreement Bill in the week beginning the 3rd June,"
    "It is imperative we do so then if the UK is to leave the EU before the summer Parliamentary recess."
    The Withdrawal Agreement has already been rejected three times by the margins of 432 to 202, 391 to 232, and 344 to 286.

    May should be sectioned.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Cousin Jack View Post
    We do have huge (and cunningly concealed) financial problems, but the whole of Western civilization is built on an unstable inflate-your-debt-until-it-vanishes model. No government dare do anything else except try to keep the plates spinning, and hope the eventual collapse lands on someone else in the future. One day it will collapse, but hopefully it will last another 25/50/100 years. Chose your own preferred timescale, 25 will see me out.

    Interesting article on the link that I posted:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a8725116.html

    Have we been misled over the importance of government debt?


    Politicians need to have a much more sophisticated appreciation of the costs and benefits of government borrowing for the welfare of the population

    But actually, fiscal illusions are what perturb experts at places such as the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    They refer to various official statistical artefacts and quirks exploited by ministers, such as the fact that student loans or spending on private finance initiative construction projects don’t show up in the national deficit.

    “Fiscal illusion” sounds like the kind of thing Derren Brown might do to your wallet in front of a packed theatre.

    They refer to various official statistical artefacts and quirks exploited by ministers, such as the fact that student loans or spending on private finance initiative construction projects don’t show up in the national deficit.

    But could there be a fiscal illusion to make those look like trivialities?

    Could the greatest fiscal illusion of all be the idea that reducing elevated levels of public debt should automatically be a priority for governments?

    Olivier Blanchard is one of the world’s most respected macroeconomists and the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

    Giving the annual American Economic Association presidential address last week, Blanchard argued something along those lines.

    Put simply, his thesis is that if the market interest rate at which a government can borrow is lower than the economy’s expected growth rate, there is little social cost from the debt because the government can simply roll its borrowings over when they come due – without having to raise taxes or cut spending and without risking a dangerous debt spiral.

    Blanchard noted that the US government can currently borrow for 10 years in financial markets at around 3 per cent a year, but that America’s projected nominal GDP growth rate is higher, at around 4 per cent. The gap is even bigger in the UK, where our own government can borrow for just 1.3 per cent but the expected nominal growth rate is 3.6 per cent.

    When one considers the positive impact on growth of higher government deficits in a time of private sector retrenchment (and the negative impact of over-hasty deficit reduction) the Blanchard finding becomes an even more significant result.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    Blanchard noted that the US government can currently borrow for 10 years in financial markets at around 3 per cent a year, but that America’s projected nominal GDP growth rate is higher, at around 4 per cent. The gap is even bigger in the UK, where our own government can borrow for just 1.3 per cent but the expected nominal growth rate is 3.6 per cent.
    And what happens when resources/climate change/war/whatever stops that GDP growth? I have no idea what sort of catastrophe will happen or when, I do know that the US GDP cannot keep growing at 4% forever. I suspect that the accrued figures are already so large that 5 years of zero growth would cause chaos.

    Not so much if as when.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by irie View Post
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/14/e...ntl/index.html



    The Withdrawal Agreement has already been rejected three times by the margins of 432 to 202, 391 to 232, and 344 to 286.

    May should be sectioned.
    Talk from the BBC political correspondent last night was that the timing suggests she's banking on the Brexit party having a field day in the Euro elections which will send such shockwaves through the Tory and Labour parties that they will back her deal. The irony.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoonercat View Post
    Talk from the BBC political correspondent last night was that the timing suggests she's banking on the Brexit party having a field day in the Euro elections which will send such shockwaves through the Tory and Labour parties that they will back her deal. The irony.
    That sort of absurd gameplay is what I find more worrying than really anything else in this debacle. She also says, she will resign if parliament accept her deal. Who the fuck does she think she is that the future of the UK should hinge on whether or not one person has a particular job? It beggars belief frankly; she is effectively suggesting she knows she is so unpopular that as a reward for voting in her deal, she will resign.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    It seems to me that by far the most likely outcome of the Conservatives being slaughtered in the EU election would be, if May does not resign, the 1922 committee finally changing its rules to allow a new leadership challenge in June (after 6 months since the last one, instead of the current 12 months).

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    The most serious aspect of all this is that May's the EU's 'deal' may get through the next time.

    That would be an awful outcome.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoonercat View Post
    Talk from the BBC political correspondent last night was that the timing suggests she's banking on the Brexit party having a field day in the Euro elections which will send such shockwaves through the Tory and Labour parties that they will back her deal. The irony.
    So she has finally got something right. Brexit party will absolutely smash it!!!

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    Interesting article on the link that I posted:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a8725116.html

    Have we been misled over the importance of government debt?


    Politicians need to have a much more sophisticated appreciation of the costs and benefits of government borrowing for the welfare of the population

    But actually, fiscal illusions are what perturb experts at places such as the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

    They refer to various official statistical artefacts and quirks exploited by ministers, such as the fact that student loans or spending on private finance initiative construction projects don’t show up in the national deficit.

    “Fiscal illusion” sounds like the kind of thing Derren Brown might do to your wallet in front of a packed theatre.

    They refer to various official statistical artefacts and quirks exploited by ministers, such as the fact that student loans or spending on private finance initiative construction projects don’t show up in the national deficit.

    But could there be a fiscal illusion to make those look like trivialities?

    Could the greatest fiscal illusion of all be the idea that reducing elevated levels of public debt should automatically be a priority for governments?

    Olivier Blanchard is one of the world’s most respected macroeconomists and the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

    Giving the annual American Economic Association presidential address last week, Blanchard argued something along those lines.

    Put simply, his thesis is that if the market interest rate at which a government can borrow is lower than the economy’s expected growth rate, there is little social cost from the debt because the government can simply roll its borrowings over when they come due – without having to raise taxes or cut spending and without risking a dangerous debt spiral.

    Blanchard noted that the US government can currently borrow for 10 years in financial markets at around 3 per cent a year, but that America’s projected nominal GDP growth rate is higher, at around 4 per cent. The gap is even bigger in the UK, where our own government can borrow for just 1.3 per cent but the expected nominal growth rate is 3.6 per cent.

    When one considers the positive impact on growth of higher government deficits in a time of private sector retrenchment (and the negative impact of over-hasty deficit reduction) the Blanchard finding becomes an even more significant result.
    Great in theory. The practice is often somewhat different. Also, actual vs projected.

    And for me the question is not so much the rate vs the projected growth rate. The question for me is rate vs tax receipts, and the projected impact of the expenditure funded by debt. If tax receipts are not projected to grow, then you have put a structural cost into future budgets. In other words, you are spending now, and putting the cost onto the future. Further, if the expenditure is not going to have an impact on the future growth, you are spending future money for no future benefit. Garden bridge, for example? Vanity projects, paid for by someone else.

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    This is interesting:



    A nice person over at Samizdata.net has put names to most of the faces:

    0:01 David Cameron, Conservative, Prime Minister at the time of the broadcast
    0:02 Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat, then leader of that party
    0:06 George Osborne, Conservative, then Chancellor of the Exchequer
    0:09 Peter Mandelson (Baron Mandelson), Labour peer and former cabinet minister, prince of darkness
    0:17 John Major, Conservative, former Prime Minister
    0:22 Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party
    0:25 Sadiq Khan, Labour, Mayor of London
    0:30 George Osborne again
    0:32 Philip Hammond, Conservative, Chancellor of the Exchequer
    0:34 Anna Soubry, formerly Conservative now Change UK
    0:36 Sir Keir Starmer, Labour, Shadow Secretary for Exiting the EU
    0:43 Peter Mandelson again
    0:50 Cameron
    0:53 Is that Nick Boles? Assuming it’s him, he’s ex-Tory, now “Independent Progressive Conservative”
    0:55 ?
    0:58 Chuka Umunna, formerly Labour now Change UK
    1:01 Damn, I know who she is but the name won’t come to me
    1:03 John McDonnell, Labour, Shadow Chancellor
    1:11 Sarah Wollaston, formerly Conservative now Change UK
    1:12 Is that worried looking woman Labour’s Yvette Cooper? She looks different without her lipstick on.
    1:17 A bloke. Labour from his red tie.
    1:22 Heidi Allen, formerly Conservative, now Change UK
    1:27 Theresa May again
    1:31 Osborne again
    1:32 ?
    1:36 May
    1:43 Cameron
    1:50 May
    1:54 Cameron
    1:57 May

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  17. #8294
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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Yambo View Post
    The most serious aspect of all this is that May's the EU's 'deal' may get through the next time.

    That would be an awful outcome.
    As Lord King, former Governor of the BofE, said:

    “If this deal is not abandoned, I believe that the U.K. will end up abrogating it unilaterally — regardless of the grave damage that would do to Britain’s reputation and standing,”

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    Default Re: The Brexit bottom line ...

    Quote Originally Posted by saga_lout View Post
    This is interesting:



    A nice person over at Samizdata.net has put names to most of the faces:

    0:01 David Cameron, Conservative, Prime Minister at the time of the broadcast
    0:02 Nick Clegg, Liberal Democrat, then leader of that party
    0:06 George Osborne, Conservative, then Chancellor of the Exchequer
    0:09 Peter Mandelson (Baron Mandelson), Labour peer and former cabinet minister, prince of darkness
    0:17 John Major, Conservative, former Prime Minister
    0:22 Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party
    0:25 Sadiq Khan, Labour, Mayor of London
    0:30 George Osborne again
    0:32 Philip Hammond, Conservative, Chancellor of the Exchequer
    0:34 Anna Soubry, formerly Conservative now Change UK
    0:36 Sir Keir Starmer, Labour, Shadow Secretary for Exiting the EU
    0:43 Peter Mandelson again
    0:50 Cameron
    0:53 Is that Nick Boles? Assuming it’s him, he’s ex-Tory, now “Independent Progressive Conservative”
    0:55 Hilary Benn - Chair of the Exiting the European Union Select Committee
    0:58 Chuka Umunna, formerly Labour now Change UK
    1:01 Justine Greening
    1:03 John McDonnell, Labour, Shadow Chancellor
    1:11 Sarah Wollaston, formerly Conservative now Change UK
    1:12 Is that worried looking woman Labour’s Yvette Cooper? She looks different without her lipstick on.
    1:17 A bloke. Labour from his red tie.
    1:22 Heidi Allen, formerly Conservative, now Change UK
    1:27 Theresa May again
    1:31 Osborne again
    1:32 Oliver Letwin - as in Cooper/Letwin amendment
    1:36 May
    1:43 Cameron
    1:50 May
    1:54 Cameron
    1:57 May

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