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Thread: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

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    Should Get Out More Screwdriver's Avatar
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    Default Is Iran goading the West into another war?


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    So they keep locking up Western visitors as spies, keep selling oil to Syria, are seizing oil tankers or blowing them up and now it appears they launched a massive attack on the Saudi oil plants.

    Clearly it is a strategy designed to force the West into removing sanctions but is this just as likely to spark a war?

    ...and if it does would anyone actually "win"? it certainly doesn't look like this situation is going to end well but we can't have a huge developed country like Iran going around blowing up shit willy nilly. Something has to give...

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    Should Get Out More Greenman's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwdriver View Post
    So they keep locking up Western visitors as spies, keep selling oil to Syria, are seizing oil tankers or blowing them up and now it appears they launched massive attack on the Saudi oil plants.

    Clearly it is a strategy designed to force the West into removing sanctions but is this just as likely to spark a war?

    ...and if it does would anyone actually "win"? it certainly doesn't look like this situation is going to end well but we can't have a huge developed country like Iran going around blowing up shit willy nilly. Something has to give...
    TBF they are a music group with about 5 members, i doubt they will do much damage to the Oil Plants, apart from smoke them...

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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwdriver View Post
    we can't have a huge developed country like Iran going around blowing up shit willy nilly. Something has to give...
    Works for the US!

    Or Russia.

    Or indeed the UK.

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    Should Get Out More NyseriA's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    At least on the surface, the UK doesn't blow stuff up "willy nilly" these days

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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by NyseriA View Post
    At least on the surface, the UK doesn't blow stuff up "willy nilly" these days
    Not that we know of.

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    Should Get Out More balbas's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    It's quite a lot more complex than it looks from the outside as there are a *lot* of moving parts.

    My assessment would be that Iran are trying to get the west to ease up on the sanctions. They made a threat that they would hurt western trade if we didn't a d they are proving that they have the capability to do that.

    I don't see that Iran would be looking to have a direct military confrontation with the US. But unlike Iraq, I expect that if it came to it they would immediately resort to asymmetric warfare and non standard tactics (swarm attacks etc) as their only chance to 'win', effectively trading Iranian fervour for US blood and treasure until the US gets sick of it.

    I don't read Iranian news (and can't read Arabic anyway), but the key indicator for the Iranians pushing the west towards a military confrontation would be what they're telling their own people.

    Arguably the biggest danger to the Middle East in the short term is what happens in Yemen. And the biggest danger in the longer term is Israel.

    All in my uninformed opinion, obviously.

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    Should Get Out More Screwdriver's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Dazzle View Post
    Works for the US!

    Or Russia.

    Or indeed the UK.
    That's all well and good and you'd be surprised perhaps that I may agree about Western Imperialist Agressors but that's not the question. At least not unless you're unsure whose side you're on. This terrorist(?) activity, disrupting shipping and oil supplies is going to hit you and me in the pocket, possibly later today!

    Are they goading us into a war? Or is it a misguided tactic being deployed by a rogue agency within Iran (the Royal Guard). Gossip appears to suggest they have their own internal struggles but again, that doesn't really help us, plus of course this is effectively a proxy war between the US and Russia.

    What should we do or is everyone kinda "yeah whatever, I don't care"...

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    Should Get Out More balbas's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwdriver View Post
    That's all well and good and you'd be surprised perhaps that I may agree about Western Imperialist Agressors but that's not the question. At least not unless you're unsure whose side you're on. This terrorist(?) activity, disrupting shipping and oil supplies is going to hit you and me in the pocket, possibly later today!

    Are they goading us into a war? Or is it a misguided tactic being deployed by a rogue agency within Iran (the Royal Guard). Gossip appears to suggest they have their own internal struggles but again, that doesn't really help us, plus of course this is effectively a proxy war between the US and Russia.

    What should we do or is everyone kinda "yeah whatever, I don't care"...
    Did you miss the bit where I said "
    I don't see that Iran would be looking to have a direct military confrontation with the US."

    ?

    Mind, if the sanctions bite hard enough then who knows what they'll do.

    One of the errors 'we' make in the West (IMO) is that we think they think like us, when they don't.

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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    It's what you do when your country is falling apart innit? Antagonise the yanks!

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    Should Get Out More Screwdriver's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by balbas View Post
    Did you miss the bit where I said "
    I don't see that Iran would be looking to have a direct military confrontation with the US."
    I did see that but I don't see where you're going with it

    Whether they are looking for it or not, they are quite likely to find it.

    We could call it the serendipity wars...

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    Should Get Out More balbas's Avatar
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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwdriver View Post
    I did see that but I don't see where you're going with it

    Whether they are looking for it or not, they are quite likely to find it.

    We could call it the serendipity wars...
    I don't know the Iranian mindset - I suspect that you have a better idea of that than I do - but I suspect they'll do everything they can to antagonise and disrupt the west and the west's allies, stopping just short of causing the west to get stuck in. They're probably bargaining on neither the US nor their allies wanting to have another Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan or Libya.

    But what if they (or the west) misjudge something or lose control of one of their proxies? Well, then I guess all bets are off...

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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    "The incident has cut global oil supplies by 5% and prices have soared."

    Now, I can't help but feel that's a little bit suspicious... :P

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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by NyseriA View Post
    "The incident has cut global oil supplies by 5% and prices have soared."

    Now, I can't help but feel that's a little bit suspicious... :P
    I don't see that at all. Unless it's fake news and the largest oil producing plant in Saudi isn't half destroyed.

    It also happens to be an intersection for a shit load of pipelines so I can easily accept that is going to affect oil supplies, even if Saudi/US are releasing some of their reserves. Secondly, that was the intention behind attacking such a plant in the first place, that was the desired result and it's not a "drone attack" like we have with a bunch of silly middle aged women with Poundland toy helicopters, they're big fuckoff missiles. And lots of them too by all accounts.

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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwdriver View Post
    I don't see that at all. Unless it's fake news and the largest oil producing plant in Saudi isn't half destroyed.

    It also happens to be an intersection for a shit load of pipelines so I can easily accept that is going to affect oil supplies, even if Saudi/US are releasing some of their reserves. Secondly, that was the intention behind attacking such a plant in the first place, that was the desired result and it's not a "drone attack" like we have with a bunch of silly middle aged women with Poundland toy helicopters, they're big fuckoff missiles. And lots of them too by all accounts.
    I think Nys is suggesting a 5% cut in production shouldn't lead to soaring prices.

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    Default Re: Is Iran goading the West into another war?

    Quote Originally Posted by slowsider View Post
    I think Nys is suggesting a 5% cut in production shouldn't lead to soaring prices.
    A significant vulnerability in global oil supply has been highlighted. The compounds may be secure in terms of fences and guards, but unless you build them in a cave..

    In essence it's not just oil supply that's vulnerable either. Use the same tech and all sorts of infra has vulnerabilities. Attacking oil hurts the west. If they just wanted to piss the Sauds off, they could have attacked some of the freshwater extraction infrastructure (but that doesn't burn or get in the news).

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