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Thread: Corona Virus

  1. #9631
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    Default Re: Corona Virus


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    Quote Originally Posted by irie View Post
    I made no comparisons with 'flu, that's your straw man. Funny that.
    That's why he said "going back to CJs post"

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  3. #9632
    Should Get Out More balbas's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Savio Du Funk View Post
    I would argue that trust is key.

    https://www.statisticsauthority.gov....-testing-data/

    We are trying to fudge our interpretation of the data, again.

    All 4 Chief Medical Officers for the UK opposed the loosening of lockdown too.
    Note, I am not saying that they are not correct. HOWEVER, something I notice is that people, no matter how intelligent or educated, CAN become focused on a single issue, to the detriment of all others. It may well be the case that the lockdown needs to continue to contain the virus, but that doing so will kill the economy, or that the lockdown will continue but that doing so is harming our ability to do x, y or z.

    Thats why the government takes advice and then makes the tough decisions.

    I don't doubt in this case that we (as a country) could be doing things better, but I don't think it's quite as black and white as some would have us believe.

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  5. #9633
    Should Get Out More Horse's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by irie View Post
    I made no comparisons with 'flu, that's your straw man. Funny that.
    ... While quoting him mentioning CJ.

    And you called me a dick for not reading something that used the same wording that I had

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  7. #9634
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by wheelnut View Post
    It seems to me, admittedly without any evidence whatsoever, that the countries that prevented the initial spread, eg SK, are going into panic lockdown as soon as they get a small spike.
    I think they've overreacted to what are pretty small numbers (worst it has got is 79/day; for perspective, the UK is still at 1500+) but YMMV. I don't see anyone else doing this - Germany, Austria, Norway, Denmark, Greece, Aus, NZ, Taiwan, Vietnam, etc etc

    Tbis doesn’t seem seem to be happening in countries where it spread fast and killed in droves, but is now dying down.
    I think the only one of these that has opened up sufficiently long ago you'd see much change (ie 2+ weeks) is parts of the US? Not looking too clever, although the weekend reporting dip there is extremely marked so hard to tell, then there's a big catch up on Tuesdays. This was from last week, note that Texas recorded nearly 2000 yesterday and California nearly 3000. The US has other issues at the moment of course.......
    US27May.jpg

  8. #9635
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by wheelnut View Post
    It seems to me, admittedly without any evidence whatsoever, that the countries that prevented the initial spread, eg SK, are going into panic lockdown as soon as they get a small spike.

    Tbis doesn’t seem seem to be happening in countries where it spread fast and killed in droves, but is now dying down.
    'Panic lockdown' or swift reaction?

  9. #9636
    Should Get Out More icarus1859's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Savio Du Funk View Post
    I would argue that trust is key.
    It is if you're begging people to do the right thing, otherwise it doesn't matter and they should just do what they're told.

    We're 100% out of lockdown now, the government told everyone to go back to work 100% and now it's full steam ahead.
    There are a few precautions, masks in some places, social distancing where appropriate, testing/tracking, but we're effectively back in business.

    The lockdown was tougher and more decisive and the undoing of it has been similarly decisive.
    Let's see where we are this time next month, if it works then there is your model.

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  11. #9637
    Should Get Out More Wreckless Rat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dodgy View Post
    No, they're not

    If herd immunity is achieved at somewhere north of 60% than no country is anywhere near it. See the previous Spanish exposure survey which is probably the most extensive done to date. 5% average across the country at the end of April, worst hit areas around 15%. UK suggestions from the survey that was sort of published and sort of not are around 17% in London, something like 8% nationwide? I can't recall the exact numbers

    If, OTOH, it is not nearly as contagious as first thought then you'd get herd immunity at a lower figure I guess, since what you're really after is enough resistance that Re drops consistently below 1. But then again, if that is the case, the chances are you don't need to get near natural herd immunity either since it's controllable
    I think we have to disagree on this. With no vaccine, all you ever have is herd immunity or some form of population controls. As the lockdown has quite adequately shown, people will only tolerate so much in the way of restrictions. As time goes on, and people "fear the best" less and less, they will loosen their guard/ignore the rules even more, start touching other people again ((((shudder))))). Add this to the huge number of people that have no real option but to travel in dirty, cramped, "ram-packed" public transport, and like flu, this disease will continue to circulate until we either gain herd immunity naturally or by intervention, i.e. a vaccine.

    When people start losing jobs, homes, families etc from all the "plague control" measures, you can bet your last dollar they will stick two fingers up at people trying to control their movements forever.

    I may be a pessimist, but all I have read leads me to believe Coronavirus immunity isn't strong, after 6months many seem to have lost sufficient antibodies, may this one is different, but maybe not, and I can't see the world giving 6m shots to everyone. There will come a point where the world accepts its here and carries on. You know what that will mean, we will rely on natural herd immunity.

    Quote Originally Posted by dodgy View Post
    All claims of "institutional racism" are bollocks IMO unless you're talking about organisations that exist mainly to be racist
    It's only Governments that can be racist, natch.

  12. #9638
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    I think we have to disagree on this.
    We will. Because (I know I keep on saying this, because it doesn’t seem to be sinking in), NHI almost certainly means over 200K dead in the UK, possibly closer to 400K. And I think that becomes socially unacceptable, which means more on/off restrictions and a worse, more lingering economic death through restrictions or public fear. The numbers are simply untenable

    We’ll see how socially unacceptable it is as the US burns ever more through 1000 lives a day, in a population 5x that of the UK and heads towards 200K+ itself.....

  13. #9639
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dodgy View Post
    We will. Because (I know I keep on saying this, because it doesn’t seem to be sinking in), NHI almost certainly means over 200K dead in the UK, possibly closer to 400K. And I think that becomes socially unacceptable
    Honestly - I'm not so sure.

    We're already ~20% of the way there and there are plenty of people (this thread as evidence) essentially shrugging it off. 200k would be unacceptable if you asked people upfront, but frogs in boiling water and all that.

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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dodgy View Post
    We will. Because (I know I keep on saying this, because it doesn’t seem to be sinking in), NHI almost certainly means over 200K dead in the UK, possibly closer to 400K. And I think that becomes socially unacceptable, which means more on/off restrictions and a worse, more lingering economic death through restrictions or public fear. The numbers are simply untenable

    We’ll see how socially unacceptable it is as the US burns ever more through 1000 lives a day, in a population 5x that of the UK and heads towards 200K+ itself.....

    I know you keep saying it, and I disagree with you.

    You have yet to explain, sans vaccine, what other option there is. You say "Asia" but even with their track/trace, long term they are still heading for NHI, all they are doing is slowing it down. The death rate will remain the same, just spread over a longer period. To you this seems acceptable, but it will still mean the same number of people will die. Slowing it down, doesn't change the fatality rate.

    You either don't grasp this, or you turn a blind eye to it.

  15. #9641
    Should Get Out More Taipan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    On a lighter note, a local guy called Colin has been going to our local hospital every morning, all on his own, and clapping any NHS workers as they came in to do their shift. He did his last clap the other day and this is how they grateful staff repaid him!

    FB vid

    https://www.facebook.com/deedeelouis...8591742506255/

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  17. #9642
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    No. They. Aren’t.

    Their strategy is continued control. It is already demonstrably something that can be done, given it’s 5 months in

    It is you who can’t see any other strategy than natural herd immunity, when there is an alternative. One that is being successfully pursued. And it is you who cant/won’t engage with the reality of the numbers of that strategy, nor what the social/economic implications of that are. You really think HMG can sit back and burn through 100s of Ks of lives? They just can’t. That’s why they changed tack in March

    I can see that NHI is *a* choice. But I can see there are others. It is not the only option and never has been. Choices can be made

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  19. #9643
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Dazzle View Post
    Honestly - I'm not so sure.

    We're already ~20% of the way there and there are plenty of people (this thread as evidence) essentially shrugging it off. 200k would be unacceptable if you asked people upfront, but frogs in boiling water and all that.
    You’re not 20% of the way there, sorry, not close
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ilot/28may2020

  20. #9644
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dodgy View Post
    No. They. Aren’t.

    Their strategy is continued control. It is already demonstrably something that can be done, given it’s 5 months in

    It is you who can’t see any other strategy than natural herd immunity, when there is an alternative. One that is being successfully pursued. And it is you who cant/won’t engage with the reality of the numbers of that strategy, nor what the social/economic implications of that. You really think HMG can sit back and burn through 100s of Ks of lives? They just can’t. That’s why they changed tack in March

    I can see that NHI is *a* choice. But I can see there are others. It is not the only option and never has been. Choices can be made

    Continual control. Impossible long term, many are asymptomatic carriers. So unless Asia locks its borders forever, or the entire world keeps 100% on top of it, control will crumble. No country will survive lockdown of tourism, business travel etc forever, it's a short term fix that works well for short term control. You think in 5yrs time, assuming there is no vaccine, they will still have limited travel and will be able to trace every case.

    I like your optimism, but that's all I believe it to be.

  21. #9645
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    ... Is the NHS institutionally racist?
    Yes. That's why you never see a foreign worker in the NHS.

    HTH

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