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Thread: Corona Virus

  1. #9706
    Should Get Out More saga_lout's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    Still have the anomaly that Germans positive to death rate is lower. It's not just Germany had fewer cases, they kept them alive far, far better.
    Could it be that they're counting those who die with Covid 19 only if that's the cause of death?

  2. #9707
    Should Get Out More irie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Gedge View Post
    Considering how everyone has been predicting a huge rise in cases after the easing if restrictions 2 and a bit weeks ago , the Covid research figures seem to be showing a very low predicted rate if infections.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

    hopefully a sign that it isn’t as infectious as they originally thought ..
    Seems to me that the 2.4 embedded in the Imperial College aka Ferguson model was a gross overestimate, and was in any case probably an average (weighted?) of some sort.

  3. #9708
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    Hmm hold on, when I used them as “we are the same as many in Europe” you ripped me a new arsehole and said Germany Germany Germany...
    Did I? Pretty sure it was when you claimed the same as most places. UK and that list are on the shit list. Most of the rest of Europe (Germany, Norway, Greece, Denmark, Czechia, Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Switzerland, Baltics, etc etc) is not. I used Germany as *the* key example as to why excuses of "large country, lots of migrants, lots of travel/borders" wouldn't wash

    Germany has a low death to positive case, why haven’t the NHS managed to replicate that? We need answers, if we are holding HMG to account for the total number of infections, NHS need to answer why they let so many die, surely.
    Once again. The simplest explanation is that the reported case numbers in Germany are much closer to the actual infection numbers than those in the UK. It is the simplest answer to this question but you have no interest in it, it must be because of treatment. Yet where is the evidence of it being about treatment? If you find data around hospitalisation and recovery numbers then you might have a case, but otherwise it's just speculation

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  5. #9709
    Should Get Out More Wreckless Rat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dodgy View Post
    Did I? Pretty sure it was when you claimed the same as most places. UK and that list are on the shit list. Most of the rest of Europe (Germany, Norway, Greece, Denmark, Czechia, Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Switzerland, Baltics, etc etc) is not. I used Germany as *the* key example as to why excuses of "large country, lots of migrants, lots of travel/borders" wouldn't wash


    Once again. The simplest explanation is that the reported case numbers in Germany are much closer to the actual infection numbers than those in the UK. It is the simplest answer to this question but you have no interest in it, it must be because of treatment. Yet where is the evidence of it being about treatment? If you find data around hospitalisation and recovery numbers then you might have a case, but otherwise it's just speculation
    And yours isn't speculation.

    Note the NHS hasn’t reported recovery numbers, just tests and deaths, a cynic might wonder why, but not me.

  6. #9710
    Should Get Out More Horse's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by irie View Post
    Seems to me that the 2.4 embedded in the Imperial College aka Ferguson model was a gross overestimate, and was in any case probably an average (weighted?) of some sort.
    It was [probably?] an estimate. With hindsight, perhaps an overestimate. Or do you believe that there was information available to them that they ignored or misinterpreted?

  7. #9711
    Should Get Out More Wreckless Rat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    It was [probably?] an estimate. With hindsight, perhaps an overestimate. Or do you believe that there was information available to them that they ignored or misinterpreted?
    So the 300/500k deaths was a likely overestimate as well then, no?

  8. #9712
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    And yours isn't speculation.
    You've heard of occum's razor?

  9. #9713
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    And yours isn't speculation.

    Note the NHS hasn’t reported recovery numbers, just tests and deaths, a cynic might wonder why, but not me.
    It's speculation based on data. Where is yours?

    My data is their early testing, their percent positive rate on tests, and the antibody testing results from Germany (limited) and the UK. I've linked to all of them not long ago.

    It's undeniable that all countries are recording case numbers well under actual infection numbers. You yourself keep talking (rightly) about asymptomatic carriers and mild cases that aren't being picked up. We know this. And that if you don't test, you can't find. And it makes obvious sense that early comprehensive testing means you pick up more of the actual early infections, and if you take action early to trace and isolate you can slow the spread. It really is as simple as that

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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    And a simple explanation would also be Germany health service is better at keeping people alive. It’s just unpalatable to some.

    There are no definitive stats to argue against it, just as their are no definitive stats to argue for your theory. Either could be correct or a likely a percentage of both...

  11. #9715
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by saga_lout View Post
    Could it be that they're counting those who die with Covid 19 only if that's the cause of death?
    No. Once again, check Andrew Neil's investigation on this, I've linked to it previously, and corroborate against their excess deaths statistics. This "died of/died with" thing is largely a furphy. It's persistent, and yes, countries count things differently and contemporary recording of deaths is not a perfect science, but it's small variances not big ones

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1244235433694973952?s=20

  12. #9716
    Should Get Out More Savio Du Funk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by dodgy View Post


    Once again. The simplest explanation is that the reported case numbers in Germany are much closer to the actual infection numbers than those in the UK. It is the simplest answer to this question but you have no interest in it, it must be because of treatment. Yet where is the evidence of it being about treatment? If you find data around hospitalisation and recovery numbers then you might have a case, but otherwise it's just speculation
    This. Also, you may be an aussie now, but one never loses the ability to understate fucked off-ness: 'once again...'

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    Well it’s all but ceased - anyone saying different is on another planet. All but urgent ops stopped, all GP surgery appointments stopped - bar emergency (they tell you to fail 999) or covid (they tell you to phone 111)

    A large proportion of GP practice staff sent home as they have nothing to do.

    It’s started to open up again, but since lockdown - cancer testing all but stopped - one surgeon was saying he would normally get x hundred cases and had none. Kids not being taken to hospital so much so they put a local plea out for parents to start going again - this is after we we sent a text saying “stay the fuck away”

    Talk about the HMG sending mixed messages.... but it’s ok, NHS angels are all heroes. The NHS has a chunk of blame on excess deaths.

    An example I had to complain to the local commissioning group to get my meds for asthma and high blood pressure - both of which can kill me if I don’t take them.

    Please stop with the NHS and barbed heroes bit. It really does make you sound childish. Which you're not. It just makes you sound it. Sorry to hear you're on meds for BP though. Exercise and being less of a bellend might help

    Services havent closed. There are even campaigns, by the NHS to state they are still open. Services are massively restricted in many areas, with a lot being complimented by video consultancy. My 8yo had an insect bite reaction yesterday and we took him to A&E. Still open, seen quickly and treated.

    We know from our referrals data that referrals have fallen off a cliff for secondary care services and particularly for the chronic care stuff. I could be really, really unkind and give you insight into some of our secondary mental health referrals and how some of the, erm, less mental mental illnesses that were filling our hospitals pre-covid have almost entire stopped as people seem capable of looking after themselves more. Or they are more capable of moderating their covid anxiety by staying at home.

    Which is a reason why loads have stayed away from the NHS: anxiety about catching the plague. The media haven't helped here.

    Some of the other comments on this thread are uncomfortable to read btw re: BLM and mocking people protesting about GF and medics trying to manipulate cause of death reasons.

    Our daily death gong is depressing consistent.

  13. #9717
    Should Get Out More Wreckless Rat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    So it turns out, unlike our health service, who wait for you to be dying, Germany had Coronavirus taxis with medics vistung people’s homes 5/6 days into infection, looking for signs of going down hill, and hospitalised them before they got too ill.

    Compare that to the NHS “stay the fuck away from us” approach.

  14. #9718
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    And a simple explanation would also be Germany health service is better at keeping people alive. It’s just unpalatable to some.

    There are no definitive stats to argue against it, just as their are no definitive stats to argue for your theory. Either could be correct or a likely a percentage of both...
    How many people have been hospitalised with C-19 in both countries? I get that recovery data is patchy and incomplete, but the raw numbers of how many have gone into hospital I'm sure are out there. It will get polluted of course because of people who never got sent there, especially out of nursing homes, but it's a guide. I'm sure you've looked for it so fire away

    No definitive stats for my theory? No, there are no definitive stats of anything to say black is white. But there ARE case numbers, testing numbers, positive test rates, positives per day stats tracking the course of the epidemic, and (limited and subject to some inaccuracy) antibody testing results.

    I also simply don't believe claims of wildly differing treatment across Europe pass the sniff test. There's a huge amount of behind the scenes international information exchange on what works and what doesn't across the medical profession, especially in an epidemic of a new virus like this. Everyone is desperately trying to get to best practice. Do I have a stat for this? No. I just have an informed opinion from the inside (best mate's wife who was the COO for London Nightingale with a background in ICU nursing)

  15. #9719
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    So it turns out, unlike our health service, who wait for you to be dying, Germany had Coronavirus taxis with medics vistung people’s homes 5/6 days into infection, looking for signs of going down hill, and hospitalised them before they got too ill.

    Compare that to the NHS “stay the fuck away from us” approach.
    That does sound plausible

  16. #9720
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    Default Re: Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    So it turns out, unlike our health service, who wait for you to be dying, Germany had Coronavirus taxis with medics vistung people’s homes 5/6 days into infection, looking for signs of going down hill, and hospitalised them before they got too ill.

    Compare that to the NHS “stay the fuck away from us” approach.
    Germany has one of the highest number of hospital beds per person in Europe, the UK has one of the lowest (or had when the virus first broke). I should imagine that played a major part in how the two health services reacted differently.

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