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Thread: Smart Motorway Stats

  1. #121
    Should Get Out More RiceBurner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats


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    Quote Originally Posted by The Spin Doctor View Post
    Do try to find a moment to investigate the Safety I / Safety II debate. As I said I do't buy in unreservedly but it does change your perspective.

    There is little evidence that 'doing it better' actually works - that is what I have been saying.

    You rarely save a plane from crashing by 'better flying', you save it by not making bad decisions in the first place - after that 'just good enough' suffices.
    errr

    "not making bad decisions in the first place" is the very basis of "better flying" (or riding, or whatever).

  2. #122
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by The Spin Doctor View Post
    And you have picked an outlier which kind-of proves my point. How often do serious motorway pile-ups happen in fog? They're newsworthy precisely BECAUSE they are rare events!

    You're far more likely to have a crash on a bend or at a junction.
    No, you're picking out of it what you want to. I chose it simply because it shows drivers ploughing into an obstruction ahead. If you want a clip sans fog I'll find you one.

  3. #123
    Should Get Out More Cousin Jack's Avatar
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by The Spin Doctor View Post
    Do try to find a moment to investigate the Safety I / Safety II debate. As I said I do't buy in unreservedly but it does change your perspective.
    I have finally got around to doing that. Interesting, and I need to think a bit more before making any judgement.

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  5. #124
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Cousin Jack View Post
    I have finally got around to doing that. Interesting, and I need to think a bit more before making any judgement.
    And, of course, the optimum is to use elements of both.

    Some of S2's proponents have come up with some interesting ideas, such as the 'pre-mortem', to look at potential failures and determine what happened - then prevent it. However, this new idea ignores that some/many (?) of us already do this when looking at risks.

  6. #125
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    And, of course, the optimum is to use elements of both.

    Some of S2's proponents have come up with some interesting ideas, such as the 'pre-mortem', to look at potential failures and determine what happened - then prevent it. However, this new idea ignores that some/many (?) of us already do this when looking at risks.
    I think I really like it because it tends to scupper the kill-joy approach.

    I still keep coming back to the Stafford Beer idea, that the only way to control complexity is more complexity. At the moment humans are the most complex control system we have, so they are best paced to control stuff that involves other humans like driving. Automating control is probably on a hiding to nothing until computers get a lot smarter, and in particular, have a LOT more real-time data to work with. Automated driving would be fine IF all driving was automated, automatic motorway controls would probably be fine IF all vehicles were fully automated. Much like automated railways really.

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  8. #126
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Unfortunately, humans get bored and distracted and, sometimes, when given options, make poor choices. Sometimes they make poor choices because they don't even realise that there had been a choice.

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  10. #127
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    Unfortunately, humans get bored and distracted and, sometimes, when given options, make poor choices. Sometimes they make poor choices because they don't even realise that there had been a choice.
    All very true. Which to choose, theoretically capable but fallible and lazy, or theoretically less than capable, but tireless and repeatable?
    My money is still on humans being best.

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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    No, you're picking out of it what you want to. I chose it simply because it shows drivers ploughing into an obstruction ahead. If you want a clip sans fog I'll find you one.
    No I am not, Malc. I'm not picking anything, YOU ARE.

    I am simply stating what is a statistical probability, and that says that you are NOT LIKELY to plough into the back of a standing queue in fog, even if you habitually drive too fast and too close. Yes, statistically such driving behaviour increases the RISK when compared with drivers who drive more slowing and with bigger gaps, but the OVERALL probability that nothing will happen remains FAR HIGHER than the chance that things will go wrong.

    If you wanted, you could post HOURS of video of drivers passing the same location in fog where nothing goes wrong.

    That's my point.

  12. #129
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    From what I see, it's often some considerable distance (miles) out.
    If it's that far out, it's far more likely it's a different vehicle.

    Phone GPS and thus Waze is usually accurate to within a few metres.

  13. #130
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by RiceBurner View Post
    errr

    "not making bad decisions in the first place" is the very basis of "better flying" (or riding, or whatever).
    Exactly... but if you don't know why a course of action might be a poor choice, how do you avoid it? If all you are taught is the 'right' way to do something you'll never learn about what are sometimes called failure modes - but it's these that are absolutely critical to avoid making 'bad decisions' when conditions are less than perfect, it's not something we can learn by being taught to pull off a text book manoeuvre when all the conditions are right... yet it's the latter 'textbook manoeuvres' that are the focus of rider and driver training.

    Take my favourite advanced riding topic - overtaking... lots of stuff on 'speed gear position acceleration'... and absolutely nothing on WHY overtaking might not be a good choice and most importantly nothing about why a mindset that eliminates as much risk as possible is a good idea.

    I got the usual debrief on overtaking on a BikeSafe last year, about how if I'd 'planned the overtake properly you could have pulled it off'. My explanation that I didn't see the need to make the pass got a disbelieving look "but you're an advanced instructor"...

  14. #131
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    And, of course, the optimum is to use elements of both.

    Some of S2's proponents have come up with some interesting ideas, such as the 'pre-mortem', to look at potential failures and determine what happened - then prevent it. However, this new idea ignores that some/many (?) of us already do this when looking at risks.
    How many times have you heard someone say "I wasn't expecting that" when things went wrong?

    We talk about anticipation but Roadcraft specifically says we should consider "what we can reasonably expect to happen".

    Unfortunately, it's rarely a reasonable event that catches us out, it's the 'unreasonable', which is why I suggest instead that we always start our planning from the 'Worst Case Scenario' instead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horse View Post
    Unfortunately, humans get bored and distracted and, sometimes, when given options, make poor choices. Sometimes they make poor choices because they don't even realise that there had been a choice.
    But far more often than a wrong choice, they make the RIGHT choices!

    If they didn't, no-one would ever get past the end of their own road.

    We must stop seeing road users as the villain of the piece and understand that its the road user who keeps a crappy system of roads as safe as they are.

  16. #133
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by The Spin Doctor View Post
    But far more often than a wrong choice, they make the RIGHT choices!

    If they didn't, no-one would ever get past the end of their own road. 90
    that sort of
    We must stop seeing road users as the villain of the piece and understand that its the road user who keeps a crappy system of roads as safe as they are.
    Very simple example of the almost instant and complex decision making that humans do every day. Today, exiting Chez CJ, wife driving. All very slow, no real danger, but considerable risk of bending one or both cars.

    Exit involves very tight right angle turn to the left, followed closely by second right angle turn left onto road. Granite walls and parked cars limit options and visibility (especially granite walls!). Halfway through exit Mrs CJ meets neighbour coming in, and cutting the corner, head on. Neighbour reversing would involve reversing almost blind into the road, Mrs CJ reversing would involve reversing (blind again) round a very tight narrow bend, with a high probability of scraping the car on the granite. What to do?

    Solution (NOT in the Highway Code) was to pass nearside to nearside. No drama, but I wonder how many hours of coding would be required to specify under what circumstances that is necessary and safe. The human (Mrs CJ - a safe but not particularly confident driver) assessed the situation and did it instinctively.

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  18. #134
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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by The Spin Doctor View Post
    How many times have you heard someone say "I wasn't expecting that" when things went wrong?

    We talk about anticipation but Roadcraft specifically says we should consider "what we can reasonably expect to happen".

    Unfortunately, it's rarely a reasonable event that catches us out, it's the 'unreasonable', which is why I suggest instead that we always start our planning from the 'Worst Case Scenario' instead.
    So educate me: how can a S2 person predict something a S1 person can't?

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    Default Re: Smart Motorway Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by The Spin Doctor View Post
    We must stop seeing road users as the villain of the piece and understand that its the road user who keeps a crappy system of roads as safe as they are.
    Same challenges as I've asked someone else (and who you are aware of), two situations which often go spectacularly wrong:

    - Impact Protection Vehicle; they're massive - almost 5m high - lights and signs, retroreflective everywhere. But people still drive into them. What can S2 offer that S1 hasn't tried? [I have an idea, but haven't been allowed to try it]

    - Breakdown and recovery vehicles; again, several incidents every year. What can S2 offer?

    So, give me some solutions, or a way of thinking that you think we should be trying that we haven't already.

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