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Thread: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

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    Should Get Out More balbas's Avatar
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    Default Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19


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    Off the back of the 'predictions on the pound' thread. And idle speculation.

    Whaddya think?

    I've seen estimates ranging from a 35-40% drop to a slight increase, (something to do with the value of the pound dropping and foreign investors IIRC)

    My thoughts - 20% drop initially, depressed and slow market for some time as people sit tight wherever they can and then as the economy picks up the prices come back up within 24 months. As an aside, I wonder how exposed the government are - anecdotally it seems that a lot of the (gazillions) of new houses built around us in the last few years seem to have been sold on some sort of help to buy scheme.

    I don't know, but suspect that banks may be quite reluctant to lend (especially on favourable rates) in the near future unless the LTV % is low.

    Edited: - and are some properties going to be affected more than others. I note the comments in another thread about SDF's family looking to move somewhere more remote - something we've been talking about too. And with perhaps a decrease in presenteeism in the workplace, will country cottages suddenly soar in value, bucking the general trend?

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    Should Get Out More KungFooBob's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    It's horribly morbid, but I suspect an larger than normal number of people will have suddenly inherited houses or large sums of money, i dunno what that means in relation to the market.

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    Should Get Out More DefTrap's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    I'm interested because my daughter has just (well, it was finalised -just- before all the lockdown malarkey) agreed selling her house and buying another. There's bound to be -some- uncertainty and drop. As far as I know it's only a 2-link chain but I'll be amazed if it all goes through.

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    Should Get Out More gremlin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    People will have lost their jobs, be building their businesses back up, hanging onto their jobs or, at the very least, not seeing any prospect of a pay rise in the foreseeable future.

    Whereas the minority of fortunate people might be looking at a bucolic cottage with roses around the front door, moving house will be the last thing on most people's minds.

    I only see a downward trend for the next year or two.

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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    In my world a house is worth a house. I live in a house. I care not it's worth. When I'm gone , others will live in this house.

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    Should Get Out More Cousin Jack's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Quote Originally Posted by Nobbynumbnut View Post
    In my world a house is worth a house. I live in a house. I care not it's worth. When I'm gone , others will live in this house.
    My view is much the same. However 2 points are worth making

    A) It only works if you are living in a suitable house. If it is too big or too small, or in the wrong place .................
    B) My view has cost me a fortune. People with the same choices as me made different decisions about houses are are now much richer.

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    Should Get Out More Wreckless Rat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Quote Originally Posted by Cousin Jack View Post
    My view is much the same. However 2 points are worth making

    A) It only works if you are living in a suitable house. If it is too big or too small, or in the wrong place .................
    B) My view has cost me a fortune. People with the same choices as me made different decisions about houses are are now much richer.
    You didnt arrive with money, you wonít leave with money. Itís the bit in between that counts, despite what some will try and force on you.

    Are you happy? If the answer is yes, the rest doesnít matter.

    Chasing other peopleís dreams of wealth is for the foolish.

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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Quote Originally Posted by Wreckless Rat View Post
    You didnt arrive with money, you won’t leave with money. It’s the bit in between that counts, despite what some will try and force on you.

    Are you happy? If the answer is yes, the rest doesn’t matter.

    Chasing other people’s dreams of wealth is for the foolish.
    I know where I came from. I know what I have. I am more than content where I am and shall , hopefully* leave this to my children.


    *Lets assume I can avoid any Care home costs.

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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Quote Originally Posted by Nobbynumbnut View Post
    I know where I came from. I know what I have. I am more than content where I am and shall , hopefully* leave this to my children.


    *Lets assume I can avoid any Care home costs.
    And that is what counts. I wonít die rich, I hopefully wonít die poor. My daughter has some funds set up for her, sheíll eventually get what we leave. I donít aspire to a massive house, or even flash cars etc., and I sure as shit donít envy other peopleís lives.

    We are born - we live - we die. Thereís no other certainties in life. Make the best of it in the ways that make you happy.

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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Blimey there are some unhappy people on this forum, bloke asks for opinions on house prices and within seven posts we're already at the stage where if you want a new house then something must be wrong with you

    I don't think prices (outside of London) will drop much, they'll just stop going up for a while.
    I can't see country houses shooting up in price because even though people could work from home I don't think many young people fancy a house in the arse end of nowhere. I think demand will stay steady on suburb houses, new build type stuff just outside of town and starter homes.

    The only people not looking to buy houses are really old people, and if they die and the house gets sold then there will be someone waiting to buy it, so demand will still be there and the price will stay fairly stable.

    Expensive matchboxes in London might take a dip, but even then there is some trendy arty type willing to pay stupid money, so who knows.

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    Should Get Out More Yambo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Quote Originally Posted by Nobbynumbnut View Post
    I know where I came from. I know what I have. I am more than content where I am and shall , hopefully* leave this to my children.


    *Lets assume I can avoid any Care home costs.

    If your kids won't look after you when needed, why leave them a house?

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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Quote Originally Posted by icarus1859 View Post
    I don't think prices (outside of London) will drop much, they'll just stop going up for a while.

    I think London house prices should skyrocket. Make the Chinese pay dearly for what they've done!

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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    This is not a straight forward question or answer

    Different regions will be affected by different degrees
    As will different types of property in those regions
    So , 1&2 bed flats in most areas outside of london will retain value better due to sheer demand
    Houses in london over £3-5 million could see up to 40-50 % wipes off their value
    This is on top of the 30% they have already fallen
    But none of this will happen overnight , in fact I donít expect the worst for another 2-3 years ( when most others on here are saying it will recover )
    If you look at the property market low after the 2008 didnít happen until late 2011 early 2012 , so I donít expect any difference in this scenario in fact I expect this one to be more retracted & deeper

    Certain property portfolios will preform better than others , but it will be based far less on asset appreciation/ depreciation & more on yield / ROI

    If you have any specific questions drop me a PM as we have done a massive study on this as one of the funds Iím involved with is looking to size up their exposure in this area once it all kicks off


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    Should Get Out More icarus1859's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Quote Originally Posted by zebbyzulu View Post
    Houses in london over £3-5 million could see up to 40-50 % wipes off their value
    This is on top of the 30% they have already fallen
    Out of interest, why?

    I understand demand for cheaper houses because young people want to buy them.
    But what has happened to the people buying £3m+ houses?

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    Should Get Out More balbas's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions on House prices post Covid - 19

    Quote Originally Posted by zebbyzulu View Post
    This is not a straight forward question or answer

    Different regions will be affected by different degrees
    As will different types of property in those regions
    So , 1&2 bed flats in most areas outside of london will retain value better due to sheer demand
    Houses in london over £3-5 million could see up to 40-50 % wipes off their value
    This is on top of the 30% they have already fallen
    But none of this will happen overnight , in fact I don’t expect the worst for another 2-3 years ( when most others on here are saying it will recover )
    If you look at the property market low after the 2008 didn’t happen until late 2011 early 2012 , so I don’t expect any difference in this scenario in fact I expect this one to be more retracted & deeper

    Certain property portfolios will preform better than others , but it will be based far less on asset appreciation/ depreciation & more on yield / ROI

    If you have any specific questions drop me a PM as we have done a massive study on this as one of the funds I’m involved with is looking to size up their exposure in this area once it all kicks off


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    No need to ask in a PM. Put simply, will a £1M house (2019 prices) in 'bumfuck nowhere' (or perhaps more amusingly Frithlestockstone, Cocks, Minions, Nomansland, or Salty Balls) be worth £750k in 2 years time. Will a £600k (2019) prices Ben worth £500k in 2022 etc etc.

    I don't think anyone knows, but I'd be interested in your research!

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